By Preston Lui

It’s official: Donald J. Trump has achieved victory in the 2024 election and is set to become 47th President of the United States, serving from his scheduled inauguration in January 2025 to the inauguration of the 48th President in January 2029. In a very close election, Trump was able to win key swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, and North Carolina, ultimately placing the electoral college at 295 to 226, with 270 required to secure the presidency.

In a historic comeback, Trump not only survived two assassination attempts in the past year, but also many legal troubles, many of which remain unresolved and pose questions on Trump’s ability to carry on as President. Upon the conclusion of polling, Kamala Harris has pledged a peaceful transition of power and has urged her supporters to maintain hope and fight on until the next election. But what does Trump’s election mean for the next four years? 

Economy

With the economy taking a downturn after the COVID-19 pandemic, many voters have cited the economy as a key issue influencing their vote. Trump has promised to end inflation; however he has not offered specific details on how he plans to do that. Instead, he has simply promised to cut taxes for both corporations and individuals, a policy that seems to be well received among his supporters.

Trump has also proposed tariffs on foreign imports in an effort to increase the US’ self-sufficiency. Many have warned that this may increase prices for regular Americans, as globalisation has made the US highly dependent on foreign imports – imports which cannot simply be dropped.

Immigration

With illegal immigration across the US-Mexico border reaching record levels under the Biden administration, Trump has pledged to begin mass deportations of undocumented migrants, as well as complete his border wall project which began when he initially took office. It is estimated that 7.2 million illegal migrants entered under Biden, compared to 2.4 million under Trump. 

However, the scale of his planned deportations remains to be seen. Deportations of such large numbers of people present significant logistical and financial challenges, and only time will tell whether his plans ultimately succeed. 

Abortion

A key issue in the election has been abortion. Many supporters of Harris fear that Trump will enforce a nationwide abortion ban, as well as other related social rights. However, Trump has stated on multiple occasions that he will leave the issue up to individual states, and given that Democrats still have a significant say in both the U.S. Congress and the Senate, it is unlikely Republicans will have the power to enforce a nationwide abortion ban this term. Even if they were successful, Trump has also vowed to veto any federal abortion bans.

Foreign Policy

Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine, a conflict which has claimed an estimated 500,000 lives since 2022, with him once stating in an interview with CNN, “I will have that war settled in 24 hours.” Many doubt his ability to actually do so, especially Ukrainian officials who fear he will favour appeasing Russia over protecting Ukraine. 

In line with this, Trump has proposed a more isolationist policy, focusing on bringing key industries such as manufacturing and technology back to America, and withdrawing from America’s role as the “global policeman”. He has repeatedly called upon European nations in NATO to increase their defense budgets and invest in their own militaries, rather than relying on the US for protection. He has also voiced skepticism at America’s military partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, especially with the island of Taiwan. However, he reportedly plans to continue aid to Israel, a controversial but not an unexpected move, given longstanding US policies.

What about Canada?

Many people on the internet have talked about moving north to Canada with the election of Trump, as they had in 2016. However, don’t expect a mass exodus of Americans fleeing the country, as statistics show that, in 2016, despite being in a similar situation, while American immigration to Canada increased slightly, the number of people actually following through with it was negligible. Additionally, with Canada facing its own problems with immigration, it is unlikely that Canada will be able to accept many incoming people.

Trump’s reelection coincides with a global shift towards conservatism, with many nations in the Americas such as Argentina, El Salvador, Ecuador, and Uruguay embracing conservatism, and many countries in Western Europe experiencing rising conservative attitudes – a shift that has also affected Canada. The leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Pierre Poilievre, has been leading the national polls and is favoured to become the next Prime Minister. Only time will tell whether this shift will end up having a positive effect on the world; but for now, we must all remember to love thy neighbour, and not let political differences split us apart.

Works Cited

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Hansler, Jennifer. “Trump’s Victory Could Mean US Withdraws Support for Ukraine in War with Russia.” CNN, 6 Nov. 2024, http://www.cnn.com/2024/11/06/politics/trump-election-ukraine-war-russia-intl/index.html. Accessed 8 Nov. 2024.

Kashinsky, Lisa, and Megan Messerly. “Trump Vows to Veto Any Federal Abortion Ban — after Previously Refusing to Commit – POLITICO.” POLITICO, Politico, Nov. 2024, http://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/01/trump-abortion-veto-national-ban-00182091. Accessed 8 Nov. 2024.

News, ABC. “2024 US Presidential Election Results: Live Map.” ABC News, 2024, abcnews.go.com/Elections/2024-us-presidential-election-results-live-map/. Accessed 8 Nov. 2024.

News, PBS. “24 Things Donald Trump Is Promising to Do.” PBS News, 7 Aug. 2024, http://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/24-things-donald-trump-is-promising-to-do. Accessed 8 Nov. 2024.

Saeng, Allison. “A Group of Red, White and Blue Vote Stickers.” Unsplash.com, Unsplash, 16 Jan. 2024, unsplash.com/photos/a-group-of-red-white-and-blue-vote-stickers-D8KDHrN6ub0. Accessed 8 Nov. 2024.

“Would Trump Abandon Taiwan?” East Asia Forum, 14 Oct. 2024, eastasiaforum.org/2024/10/14/would-trump-abandon-taiwan/. Accessed 8 Nov. 2024.